Five jumbled up sentences (labelled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5), related to a topic, are given below. Four of them can be put together to form a coherent paragraph. Identify the odd sentence and key in the number of that sentence as your answer.

1. Part of the appeal of forecasting is not just that it seems to work, but that you don't seem to need specialized expertise to succeed at it.
2. The tight connection between forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.
3. This was true even though the latter had access to classified intelligence.
4. One frequently cited study found that accurate forecasters' predictions of geopolitical events, when aggregated using standard scientific methods, were more accurate than the forecasts of members of the US intelligence community who answered the same questions in a confidential prediction market.
5. The aggregated opinions of non-experts doing forecasting have proven to be a better guide to the future than the aggregated opinions of experts.

Question

Five jumbled up sentences (labelled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5), related to a topic, are given below. Four of them can be put together to form a coherent paragraph. Identify the odd sentence and key in the number of that sentence as your answer.

1. Part of the appeal of forecasting is not just that it seems to work, but that you don't seem to need specialized expertise to succeed at it.
2. The tight connection between forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.
3. This was true even though the latter had access to classified intelligence.
4. One frequently cited study found that accurate forecasters' predictions of geopolitical events, when aggregated using standard scientific methods, were more accurate than the forecasts of members of the US intelligence community who answered the same questions in a confidential prediction market.
5. The aggregated opinions of non-experts doing forecasting have proven to be a better guide to the future than the aggregated opinions of experts.

Accepted Answer

The sentences primarily focus on comparing expert and non-expert forecasting in geopolitical contexts, emphasizing studies and aggregated opinions. Sentences 1, 3, 4, and 5 create a coherent narrative:

- **Sentence 1** introduces forecasting's appeal due to its accessibility without specialized expertise.  
- **Sentence 4** provides evidence from a study comparing expert forecasts with aggregated non-expert predictions.  
- **Sentence 3** elaborates on the study's findings regarding classified intelligence access by experts ("the latter").  
- **Sentence 5** concludes by highlighting the superiority of non-expert aggregated opinions over expert forecasts.

However, **Sentence 2** diverges by discussing forecasting's connection to building models and its early interest from the intelligence community, which does not align with the theme of comparing expert and non-expert forecasting accuracy. Therefore, **Sentence 2** is identified as the odd one out.